Fresh off of their remarkable victory in the midterm elections in 2014 the GOP has just been handed the most devastating piece of news, Jeb Bush has “decided to actively explore the possibility of running for President”. Jeb Bush is the former Governor of Florida, the son and brother of two former Presidents, and just the moderate establishment Republican that the Democrats where hoping would throw his hat into the ring.
Jeb Bush is another typical establishment Republican. He is a moderate, which we all know means progressive light. He has a record that is guaranteed to turn the stomachs of the conservative base of the GOP. This means that Democrats will prop him up as the only candidate that can win the much sought after “moderate/independent” vote. The Democrats will tell people that Jeb Bush is the candidate that the GOP has to run if they want to stand any chance of winning. So, Jeb Bush will distance the party from its base, couple that with the Democrats giving him a rousing endorsement, Jeb will become the Establishment’s front runner candidate. This must not be allowed to happen.
Jeb Bush is a dream candidate for the Democrat Party, there is no other way to see it. His views on key issues automatically eliminate him from being electable among conservatives. The Democrat party is collapsing in on itself. Two devastating midterms, and the scandal ridden presidency of Barack Obama have decimated the creditably of the party. They lost the midterms against opponents who did not have a national campaign. The only way that they can defeat the GOP is by causing a civil war inside of the party, establishment vs. the base. Jeb Bush is just the man to do it.
For those of you who are thinking, the GOP has to nominate someone who can win the independents, don’t worry the base will vote against whoever the Democrats run. Lets look at who you are campaigning for? Let us see if you really think that Jeb Bush is capable of being a better progressive candidate than Hilary Clinton. See if his positions are ones that you can actually support.
Jeb Bush is a major supporter of Common Core Education Standards. Does supporting Common Core really make Jeb Bush a viable candidate? Allow me to break this question down into smaller parts.
- Will this issue bring conservative voters to his side to vote against Hilary Clinton?
A Gallop Poll in August of 2014 showed that 76% of Republicans opposed Common Core. Only 17% approved of it. So only 17% of the GOP wold be see Jeb Bush’s support of Common Core as a positive reason to vote for him. So logically you can only assume, No Jeb Bush’s support of Common Core would not bring the conservative base out to vote for him.
- Would this issue possibly cause conservative voters to stay home and not vote for him?
With 76% of the party opposed to the Common Core Standards it is easy to believe that Conservatives would not show up to vote for a candidate that they feel was forced on them by the Establishment, as a way to punish the GOP for ignoring their views. the answer is Yes
- Would this issue cause moderates to vote for Jeb Bush as opposed to Hilary Clinton?
The same Gallop Poll shows that only 33% of the nation supports the implementation of Common Core. That is a very small number, considering that it includes the 17% of Republicans, and the Democrats who support Common Core. I do not really see how anyone could think that supporting Common Core would bring moderates out to vote for Jeb Bush. The answer is no.
- Would this issue cause moderate NOT to vote for Jeb Bush?
The same Gallop Poll shows that 59% of the American People are opposed to Common Core. 59%, that is a large number. Running with support for Common Core on your record is almost as bad as running with support for Obamacare on it. Support for Common Core could easily cause moderates to feel disenfranchised with the election processes, neither party gets it, both are the same, and they end up just staying home. so the answer is Yes
So support for Common Core will alienate the base, and at the same time fail to win moderate voters. So you ignore the majority of people who you need to win the election in order to win moderate votes, and in so doing fail to win the moderate votes. Jeb Bush’s support for Common Core does not help him win the White House, in fact it hurts his chances, and aids Hillary’s.
Jeb Bush has comforted the Establishment Republican class by claiming that he is going to secure the nomination without the base of they party. That is good news for spineless progressive slime like John Beohner and John McCain, but what does it really mean for the Jeb’s chances at being a viable candidate in 2016? To answer this I have some different questions to ask.
1. Has a Republican ever won the White House without winning the conservative base?
Basically when you look at basic electoral politics, 40% of the population are progressives, 40% are conservative, that leaves 20% as moderates up for grabs. Running against the conservative base means that Jeb Bush thinks that he can win the White House with only 20% of the population. Now of course some conservatives will still vote to keep Hilary out of office, but do we really want to risk another 2012, where three million conservative votes stay home? Romney won the independents, but not the base. Romney won the independents, yet somehow Barack Obama is still President.
2. Has this concept of running a moderate worked in the past?
The last two presidential elections the GOP Establishment has convinced the base to run the “candidate that can win the independents”. Such as progressive “maverick” John McCain, who lost to Barack Obama. Then they ran a moderate, Mitt Romney, a man who was given the election on a silver platter. A man who was running against a President who let an embassy burn while he went on the campaign trail. A President who forced Obamacare down the throats of a nation who did not want it. A President who nearly doubled the entirety of the US debt in only four years. Despite all of this, Mitt Romney managed to blow it, by failing to inspire the conservative base.
3. Are conservatives really something to be avoided?
The GOP had no problem embracing the TEA Party in 2010. The TEA Party was a group of common, every day Americans who stood up against the out of control nature of President Obama and his progressive allies. Embracing the TEA Party and its limited government message led the GOP to the largest wave election in American History. More importantly winning over conservatives is highly important, as according to a Gallop Poll done in 2013, conservatives outnumber progressives in 47 out of 50 states. Another Gallup Poll of the population in 2013 stated that conservatives outnumber progressives by a 15% margin.
4. What is the ideological make up of Republican voters?
The same Gallup poll referenced above points out that over the last decade more Republicans are now classifying themselves as conservatives, from 62% in 2000 to 70% in 2013. Republicans who say they are moderate have dropped from 31% to 23%.
So Jeb Bush plans to somehow win a GOP Primary by alienating 70% of his party, in order to win over 23%. To achieve this goal he will waste millions of dollars destroying viable candidates, in order to secure the GOP nomination. This money would be better served in the fight against Hilary. So Jeb Bush plans to destroy his war chest in the primary, in order to win over alienate 70% of his party. Then he plans to go into the national election running against the majority of American voters. Somehow the Establishment and Jeb Bush thinks this is a viable idea. Unfortunately it is a recipe for a repeat of 2008, and 2012.
If you are a conservative, if you are a Republican, you cannot support Jeb Bush. A vote for Jeb is a vote for Hilary. That is all there is to it. We have tried listening to John Beohner, John McCain, and Karl Rove. They have only allowed for Barack Obama to destroy the fabric of this nation. It is time for the old guard to sit down and shut up. Stand for a TRUE conservative, and we will win in 2016. Run the guy that John McCain and Karl Rove claim can win, and we will have to watch Hilary be sworn into office. That is the plain and simple fact. Anyone who claims otherwise is either in a state of denial, believes that Democrats like sharing votes, or is truly ignorant.